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02/13/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Bruins appear to have rediscovered their winning ways following one of the worst stretches in their history. The Florida Panthers, on the other hand, are still searching for answers in matching their longest losing streak of the season.
The Panthers will be out to avoid a sixth consecutive defeat when they host the resurgent Bruins tonight at the BankAtlantic Center in the final game for both teams before the Olympic break.
Boston went 0-6-4 during a 10-game span from January 16-February 6, but have since rebounded with three straight victories to open a road trip that concludes tonight. After besting fellow Northeast Division members Montreal and Buffalo to begin the swing, the Bruins held on for a wild 5-4 triumph over Tampa Bay Thursday at the St. Pete Times Forum.
The Bruins roared to a commanding 4-0 lead after one period, with Michael Ryder scoring two of those goals and adding an assist, and extended the margin to five early in the second period on Milan Lucic's second tally of the night. The Lightning's Martin St. Louis would light the lamp twice before the end of the middle stanza, however, and a pair of goals by Steve Downie in the third brought Tampa within 5-4.
Boston would hold off the Lightning the rest of the way, though, with Tampa Bay mustering only one shot after Downie scored his second goal with 3:13 left to play.
"I'm happy with the win. Those two points are so valuable right now," said Boston head coach Claude Julien afterward. "I think we deserved to win, but we certainly did everything to shoot ourselves in the foot and make it exciting."
Tuukka Rask made 31 saves for Boston in his fifth straight start between the pipes. The youngster has replaced the struggling Tim Thomas as the team's regular netminder for the time being and has posted a 1.90 goals-against average and .942 save percentage since taking over for the reigning Vezina Trophy winner.
The Bruins, who led the Eastern Conference with 116 points last season, are presently tied with Tampa Bay for the final playoff spot in the East with 63 total points.
They'll be trying to pick up two more at the expense of a reeling Panthers team that has generated a mere four goals over its five-game skid and was shut out for the second time during the losing streak on Thursday, when Vancouver's Roberto Luongo turned aside all 31 shots he faced in the Canucks' 3-0 win.
"[The puck] just isn't going in right now," said Panthers defenseman Dennis Seidenberg. "We just have to keep working hard, and hopefully the next game we get the bounces."
Tomas Vokoun finished with 32 saves for Florida, which also lost five in a row between November 23-30. The Panthers' last six-game slide occurred between October 25-November 8, 2008.
These teams have split two previous meetings this season, with the Bruins' earning a 2-1 decision at the BankAtlantic Center on December 27 behind 25 saves from Thomas. The win was Boston's fourth in its last five visits to Sunrise.
<< Flyers, Canadiens wrap testy home-and-home set at Bell Centre
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will try to sweep their second
home-and-home series this week when they visit Montreal and the Bell Centre
this evening just over 24 hours after besting the Canadiens at home on Friday
night.
The F
<< San Diego heads north to take on No. 16 Gonzaga
Spokane, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After capturing sole possess of first place in
the West Coast Conference, the 16th-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs will play host to
the San Diego Toreros this evening at the McCarthy Athletic Center.
The Toreros are s
<< Runnin' Rebels visit Aztecs in Mountain West showdown
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 23rd-ranked Runnin' Rebels of UNLV try to
remain in the national spotlight this afternoon as they make the trip to San
Diego State to challenge the Aztecs in a Mountain West Conference bout at
Viejas Arena.
<< K-State hopes to avoid upset in home bout with Colorado
Manhattan, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ninth-ranked Kansas State Wildcats try to
make school history today as they shoot for their 20th win of the season when
they suit up against the Colorado Buffaloes in a Big 12 Conference showdown at
Bramlage
Soderling tops Davydenko in Rotterdam semis >>
Rotterdam, The Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sweden's Robin Soderling toppled
Nikolay Davydenko of Russia in the first of Saturday's semifinals at the ABN
AMRO World Tennis Tournament.
The third-seeded Soderling earned a 7-6 (7-3), 6-
Dementieva outlasts Oudin to reach Paris final >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Elena Dementieva of Russia rallied from a set
down to beat American Melanie Oudin in the semifinals of the GDF Suez tennis
tournament.
The top-seeded Dementieva posted a 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 victory over last year
Sixers should feel obligated to keep Iguodala >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I'm not a big fan of obligation.
Albert Einstein once said "It is every man's obligation to put back into the
world at least the equivalent of what he takes out of it." While I'm not
claiming to be on the
Michigan State ends slide with win over Lions >>
University Park, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kalin Lucas scored 24 points in his
return to the starting lineup, as 10th-ranked Michigan State halted a three-
game skid with a 65-54 victory over Penn State at the Bryce Jordan Center.
Lucas in
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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