FCS players of the week awarded to Edwards, Crockett, Gray and Igono

NCAA Football Betting Lines

11/05/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Appalachian State quarterback Armanti Edwards, Fordham linebacker James Crockett, Morehead State defensive back Brian Gray and Northern Arizona special teams performer Cyrus Igono were selected Monday as national players of the week by the Sportsbook Betting Lines.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State, Sophomore, Quarterback, 6-0, 175, Greenwood, S.C.

Edwards broke the single-game rushing record for Appalachian State, running 21 times for 291 yards (13,9 average) and two touchdowns in the Mountaineers' 45-24 victory at The Citadel Saturday afternoon. Edwards cracked the mark set by Richie Melchor, who had 267 yards on 36 carries on Oct. 28, 1989 against Tennessee-Chattanooga. The rushing performance was the best ever for a Southern Conference quarterback, beating the mark of 286 by Gene Brown of The Citadel against VMI in 1988. It was the third best rushing total in a single game this season, bettered only by Herb Donaldson's 314 yards for Western Illinois against Missouri State and Tim Hightower's 295 yards for Richmond against Bucknell. Edwards, starting for just the third time since being sidelined by a shoulder injury, also completed 10-of-20 passes for 148 yards and two more touchdowns. He finished the day with 439 yards of total offense on 41 plays. It was the fourth highest total offense output in school history. Only former All- American quarterback Richie Williams has put up more yards in an ASU. Williams holds the team record with 517 yards. The win helped the Mountaineers move into a four-way tie for the lead in the Southern Conference. He had an 80-yard TD run in the first period, TD passes of six and 45 yards in the second quarter and a 25-yard scoring scamper in the fourth stanza. Edwards also became the career leader at ASU in rushing by a quarterback with 1,889 yards, breaking the record previously held by Scott Satterfield (1992-95), Edwards' quarterback coach.

DEFENSIVE PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

James Crockett, Fordham, Sophomore, Linebacker, 6-2, 220, Maple Heights, Ohio

Crockett sparked Fordham to a 24-21 victory over Holy Cross Saturday at home in the battle for the Patriot League championship. Crockett recovered a fumble in the end zone after a muffed punt for a touchdown that gave the Rams a 21-14 lead in the third period. He then intercepted a pass in Fordham territory in the final seconds to end the Crusaders' hopes of a comeback. Crockett tied for the team lead in tackles with seven, including four solo stops and had one tackle for loss. The Rams clinched their first PL title and playoff berth since 2002 with the victory.

Brian Gray, Morehead State, Senior, Defensive Back, 6-0, 200, Savannah Ga.

Gray intercepted three passes to help lead Morehead State to a 33-0 blanking of Drake Saturday at home in a key Pioneer Football League game. Gray's first interception in the first quarter stopped a Drake drive at the MSU 37. He added an interception at the Drake 22 in the second period and grabbed his at the Bulldog 45 in the third stanza. Gray became the second Morehead State player to intercept three passes in the same game this season. David Hyland pulled off the feat against Jacksonville on Oct. 13. The victory over Drake allowed the Eagles to stay in a three-way tie for first in the PFL with Dayton and San Diego. MSU plays San Diego Saturday, with a win giving the Eagles a berth in the Gridiron Classic against the champion of the Northeast Conference.

SPECIAL TEAMS PLAYER OF THE WEEK

Cyrus Igono, Northern Arizona, Sophomore, Linebacker, 5-10, 195, Phoenix, Az.

Igono blocked a pair of punts in the third quarter to guide Northern Arizona to a 29-14 win on the road over Montana State in a Big Sky Conference game. The two blocked punt led to nine points for the Lumberjacks, who turned a 14-6 halftime deficit into a 15-14 lead. Igono's first block of an Eric Fisher punt early in the third period led to a 30-yard NAU field goal. His second block gave the Lumberjacks the ball at the MSU three-yard line to set up quarterback Lance Kriesien's touchdown run on the next play. Igono has four blocked punts this season, tying an FCS record shared by Ryan Crawford of Davidson (2000) and Robert Herron of Sam Houston State (2004). Igono became the ninth player in FCS history to block two punts in the same game.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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